7.14 Pre-Post-Mortem Patch Analysis

While plenty of Dota 2 fans are pretty focused on the Battle Pass, let’s not forget one more important thing coming up: the biweekly gameplay patch.

Yes, that’s right. Since the last time we came around, we saw penguins held hostage, this year’s Battle Pass released, and Infinity War released. Plus, a Chinese team finally won a Pro Circuit Major! It’s been a pretty dramatic few weeks.

But has it been dramatic for our pub matches? Maybe there’s something that will make the stats a little wonky this week? It’s time to dig a little bit into the numbers and find out.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: Winrates are as of Thursday, May 9 at about 2:00 PM ET, and are subject to change before the actual 7.15 patch drops.]

Highest win rates

1. Spectre — 58.41
2. Zeus — 58.14
3. Riki — 55.89
4. Underlord — 55.45
5. Wraith King — 55.37
6. Chaos Knight — 55.07
7. Axe — 54.96
8. Vengeful Spirit — 54.55
9. Elder Titan — 54.93

Not too much to say here, as even nerfs couldn’t hold back some of the top heroes since last patch. Zeus, Riki and Axe, specifically, all hold pretty high win rates despite having relatively high pick rates, though Zeus and Riki have dropped down a little bit (as we’ll discuss below).

New to the list are Centaur Warrunner and Visage, who were hovering just a bit below this list last week. Things fluctuate! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Best win rate changes

Format: Hero — Winrate change (Current winrate percentage, % change between patches)

1. Arc Warden — +4.00 (48.76, +8.94%)
2. Alchemist — +3.57 (46.66, +8.28%)
3. Io — +3.43 (45.55, +8.16%)
4. Windranger — +3.37 (49.31, +7.34%)
5. Earth Spirit — +3.22 (48.17, +7.16%)
6. Phantom Lancer — +3.05 (55.38, +5.83%)
7. Dark Seer — +2.88 (50.06, +6.10%)
8. Warlock — +2.72 (53.61, +5.34%)
9. Undying — +2.71 (54.37, +5.25%)
10. Spectre — +2.34 (59.70, +4.08%)

First, we need to talk about Arc Warden, as his case will likely give context to everyone else. Here’s the issue: There’s a massive spike in win rate and pick rate in the last 24 hours. And I mean, like, this is his win rate:

via Dotabuff

And his pick rate makes it even more confusing, because you can clearly tell when he was a bonus hero, because he was picked more often, but compared to the past week:

via Dotabuff

Now, I don’t know if he was a bonus hero yesterday, and there’s no way to check if this is a trend until tomorrow. There’s also a chance that a lot of people are getting him early in the Cavern Crawl, which requires you to win as a hero in order to proceed and earn prizes. So we’ll see.

The deal is likely the case with other heroes such as Windranger, who I actually personally have immediately upon opening Cavern Crawl. (She’s a usable hero, I promise.) On the other hand, she was an unusual, standout pick at Epicenter XL, which can bolster her popularity.

So data is cool, but it’s flawed sometimes, as we can see with the Cavern.

Worst win rate changes

Format: Hero — Winrate change (Current winrate percentage, % change between patches)

1. Outworld Devourer — -6.95 (45.57, -13.23%)
2. Terrorblade — -6.10 (46.28, -11.65%)
3. Tiny — -3.78 (37.26, -9.21%)
4. Riki — -3.37 (53.68, -5.91%)
5. Visage — -2.64 (52.17, -4.82%)
6. Pangolier — -1.67 (42.65, -3.77%)
7. Razor/Dark Willow —
   -1.37 (44.32/48.74, -3.00%/2.73% respectively)
8. Enchantress — -1.12 (44.56, -2.45%)
9. Shadow Fiend — -1.08 (45.82, -2.30%)

It’s hard to be on top sometimes. Such is the case for heroes like Terrorblade and Riki, who saw a massive winrate jump last patch before climbing down as of this one. Each saw some nerfs — Terrorblade much more so than Riki — affecting their ability to be a menace.

Miraculously, Dark Willow finally also got nerfed, evening out the playing field, as she’s been quite the menace in pub and pro play.